On Average, Supra-State Organizations Operating Within Sub-Saharan Africa Unlikely To Have Any Impact On The Influence Of Non-State Actors In The Region Over The Next Five Years
Executive Summary:
European Union
It is likely that there are only two supra-state organizations with significant influence in Sub-Saharan Africa the European Union (EU) and The United Nations (UN). Neither organization likely has any impact on the influence of non-state actors (NSAs), either now or over the next five years.
Discussion:
Out of all the supra-state organizations operating within Sub-Saharan Africa, it is likely that the two most important organizations are the European Union (EU) and The United Nations (UN). However, while both of these international organizations play a multitude of functional roles within a vast majority of countries in Sub-
United Nations
Saharan Africa, they exhibit limited influential power and are unlikely to have any significant impact on the overall influence of NSAs within each country. Since the two most important supra-state organizations operating within Africa exhibit limited real power and influence, and are unlikely to have any impact over the role of NSAs over the next five years, it is highly unlikely that other smaller supra-state organizations will experience any significant role in the continent over the given time period.
The EU's historic ties with Africa, in addition to its status as a multilateral organization that develops policies based on consensus, likely make the European Union one of the most important supra-state organization on the African continent.1 The strategic goals of the EU in Africa are the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and the promotion of sustainable development, security, and good governance.2 The EU plays a significant, when compared to other supra-state organizations, role in Sub-Saharan Africa particularly in regards to trade, as in 2007 alone the organization accounted for 75 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's trade.3 In addition, recent developments such as new international developmental commitments, competition with state actors such as China, and the increased focus on access to natural resources and energy security have strengthen the EU's determination for an increased role within Africa.4 The EU is also likely to see an increased role on issues of governance, stability, and democracy within countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Somalia. Furthermore, the EU supports UN initiatives in many parts of the continent, and has provided direct financial support to the African Union, such as over USD 350 million in support of its mission to Sudan.5
The UN is another important supra-state organization operating within Sub-Saharan Africa, as it plays an array of functional roles in the continent, particularly in regards to peacekeeping and human development. Currently, the UN has close to 50,000 troops on the ground, actively involved in peacekeeping missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Sierra Leone, and Burundi.6 While the organization has plans for future expansion of its operations, it is unlikely that any newly developed operations will significantly increase the overall role of the UN in Sub-Saharan Africa. The UN's most important functional role in the African countries comes from its involvement in the area of human development, particularly in nations in which the government seems unable to ameliorate some of the internal social and human developmental problems facing each individual countries .7 Through some of its member groups such as the World Food Program, the UN Habitat, the Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, the UN plays an important functional role in the continent; however, its overall ability to influence major political, social, and economic decisions or changes in the region is minimal at its best. Furthermore, neither the UN's or the EU's operations appear to have any impact on the role that NSAs play in Sub-Saharan Africa, neither now nor over the next five years.
World Peacekeeping Missions for 2006-2007-click for article.
While there are additional supra-state organizations operating on the African continent, their role and power to achieve their specific objectives is likely to remain minimal over the next five years when compared to the EU and the UN. The African Union, as an example, has as a simplified summary of its goals the promotion of economic progress and good governance within the continent; however, due to the organizational and financial barriers it faces, it is unlikely to make significant progress towards achieving its goals over the next five years.8 In addition, there are major obstacles within each country, such as poor infrastructure development, lack of industrial diversification, debt and significant dependence on foreign aid, as well as internal instability and conflict that prevent the African Union for obtaining an increased role within Sub-Saharan Africa .9 However, the largest problem facing the African Union is the lack of funds to support its operations and initiatives, as it largely depends on funds from member nations and other supra-state organizations such as the UN and the EU.10
Analytical Confidence: 7 Source Reliability: 8
For questions or comments, please contact the author:
On Average, Supra-State Organizations Operating Within Sub-Saharan Africa Unlikely To Have Any Impact On The Influence Of Non-State Actors In The Region Over The Next Five Years
Executive Summary:
Discussion:
Out of all the supra-state organizations operating within Sub-Saharan Africa, it is likely that the two most important organizations are the European Union (EU) and The United Nations (UN). However, while both of these international organizations play a multitude of functional roles within a vast majority of countries in Sub-
The EU's historic ties with Africa, in addition to its status as a multilateral organization that develops policies based on consensus, likely make the European Union one of the most important supra-state organization on the African continent.1 The strategic goals of the EU in Africa are the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and the promotion of sustainable development, security, and good governance.2 The EU plays a significant, when compared to other supra-state organizations, role in Sub-Saharan Africa particularly in regards to trade, as in 2007 alone the organization accounted for 75 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's trade.3 In addition, recent developments such as new international developmental commitments, competition with state actors such as China, and the increased focus on access to natural resources and energy security have strengthen the EU's determination for an increased role within Africa.4 The EU is also likely to see an increased role on issues of governance, stability, and democracy within countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Somalia. Furthermore, the EU supports UN initiatives in many parts of the continent, and has provided direct financial support to the African Union, such as over USD 350 million in support of its mission to Sudan.5
The UN is another important supra-state organization operating within Sub-Saharan Africa, as it plays an array of functional roles in the continent, particularly in regards to peacekeeping and human development. Currently, the UN has close to 50,000 troops on the ground, actively involved in peacekeeping missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Sierra Leone, and Burundi.6 While the organization has plans for future expansion of its operations, it is unlikely that any newly developed operations will significantly increase the overall role of the UN in Sub-Saharan Africa. The UN's most important functional role in the African countries comes from its involvement in the area of human development, particularly in nations in which the government seems unable to ameliorate some of the internal social and human developmental problems facing each individual countries .7 Through some of its member groups such as the World Food Program, the UN Habitat, the Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, the UN plays an important functional role in the continent; however, its overall ability to influence major political, social, and economic decisions or changes in the region is minimal at its best. Furthermore, neither the UN's or the EU's operations appear to have any impact on the role that NSAs play in Sub-Saharan Africa, neither now nor over the next five years.
While there are additional supra-state organizations operating on the African continent, their role and power to achieve their specific objectives is likely to remain minimal over the next five years when compared to the EU and the UN. The African Union, as an example, has as a simplified summary of its goals the promotion of economic progress and good governance within the continent; however, due to the organizational and financial barriers it faces, it is unlikely to make significant progress towards achieving its goals over the next five years.8 In addition, there are major obstacles within each country, such as poor infrastructure development, lack of industrial diversification, debt and significant dependence on foreign aid, as well as internal instability and conflict that prevent the African Union for obtaining an increased role within Sub-Saharan Africa .9 However, the largest problem facing the African Union is the lack of funds to support its operations and initiatives, as it largely depends on funds from member nations and other supra-state organizations such as the UN and the EU.10
Analytical Confidence: 7
Source Reliability: 8
For questions or comments, please contact the author:
Andreea F. Neagu